How Often Do UFC Favourites Win? 6,773 Fights by Moneyline
Across 6,773 UFC fights with closing odds, the market priced favourites almost exactly right overall. The edges sit at the extremes of the moneyline, not in the middle.
Every fight week someone tells me the favourite is overpriced. I wanted to test that properly, so this study takes 6,773 UFC fights with closing moneylines from 2010 to 2026 and asks a plain question. At each price, how often did the favourite actually win, and was that more or less than the odds implied?
The headline is that the market is very good. Favourites won 66.6% of fights against an average of 66.0% priced once the margin was removed, a gap of just +0.6 points. That accuracy is why I lean on style and method rather than the moneyline in my UFC predictions page. But the overall figure hides two clear patterns: the shortest favourites delivered more than their price, and the coin-flip favourites delivered less.
Short favourites outperform their odds, pick'em favourites underperform
Each row compares the margin-removed price with the actual win rate for that moneyline band. Most rows nearly overlap, which tells you the closing line is doing its job. The outlier is the top band: favourites of -400 or shorter won 86.0% of 1,008 fights against 81.8% priced, a +4.2 point gap and the largest in the study.
At the other end, near pick'em favourites from -124 to -100 won 49.5% against 51.8% priced. The worst band was -174 to -150, where favourites won 56.7% against 59.6% priced, falling โ2.9 points short.
Moneyline margin removed proportionally; draws and no-contests excluded.
View the data: priced vs delivered
| Priced (margin removed) | Actually won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| -400 or shorter (1,008 fights) | 81.8% | 86.0% | ยฑ2.1 |
| -399 to -300 (796 fights) | 74.5% | 78.1% | ยฑ2.9 |
| -299 to -250 (694 fights) | 70.4% | 71.2% | ยฑ3.4 |
| -249 to -200 (1,109 fights) | 66.4% | 67.2% | ยฑ2.8 |
| -199 to -175 (609 fights) | 62.8% | 63.5% | ยฑ3.8 |
| -174 to -150 (1,017 fights) | 59.6% | 56.7% | ยฑ3 |
| -149 to -125 (1,067 fights) | 55.4% | 54.8% | ยฑ3 |
| -124 to -100 (473 fights) | 51.8% | 49.5% | ยฑ4.5 |
Here is the honest caveat. The bands hold between 473 and 1,109 fights each, so gaps of 2-4 points can be plain chance, and these are single recorded closing lines rather than the best price available. I treat the top-band edge as a lean worth watching, not a system.
How heavy favourites finish fights compared with coin-flip favourites
This is where I spend most of my time, because the method market is often better value than the moneyline. Among -400 or shorter favourites, 31.8% of fights ended in a favourite KO/TKO win and 33.6% in a favourite decision win. When the gap in class is that wide, the stoppage is almost as likely as the scorecards.
Move down to the -124 to -100 band and the picture flips. The favourite lost 50.3% of those fights and won on decision 26.9%. Evenly matched fighters cancel each other out, finishes dry up, and the result often rests with the judges.
Fights with a recorded KO/TKO, submission or decision result only (DQ and unrecorded methods excluded).
View the data: how favourites win (and how often they lose)
| Won by KO/TKO | Won by submission | Won on decision | Lost | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -400 or shorter | 31.8% | 20.9% | 33.6% | 13.7% |
| -399 to -300 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 37.2% | 21.5% |
| -299 to -250 | 24.7% | 12.7% | 34.0% | 28.6% |
| -249 to -200 | 20.8% | 11.4% | 34.8% | 33.0% |
| -199 to -175 | 20.1% | 11.7% | 31.5% | 36.7% |
| -174 to -150 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 31.6% | 43.1% |
| -149 to -125 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 28.7% | 44.4% |
| -124 to -100 | 15.0% | 7.8% | 26.9% | 50.3% |
Stylistically that makes sense to me. A dominant wrestler or a far sharper striker can force the finish, while two fighters who share the range tend to trade rounds. If I like a near pick'em favourite, I am far more likely to look at the decision price than the stoppage.
Favourite win rates year by year against the market price
The yearly line shows how much noise sits around that steady long-run figure. The best year for favourites was 2023, when they won 70.4%, and the worst was 2015, at 61.1%. The priced line moves far less than the actual line, which is exactly what you would expect from a market that adjusts slowly while results swing.
The more recent seasons have tended to run hot for favourites compared with their price. I would not build anything on that, because single years are small samples, but it is a reminder that a run of upsets or a run of chalk rarely tells you the market has broken.
Full calendar years only; the partial 2026 season is excluded from this chart.
View the data: favourite win rate, year by year
| Actually won | Priced (margin removed) | |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 62.3% | 65.5% |
| 2011 | 68.8% | 66.7% |
| 2012 | 67.1% | 66.6% |
| 2013 | 69.1% | 67.0% |
| 2014 | 68.4% | 68.5% |
| 2015 | 61.1% | 66.9% |
| 2016 | 63.5% | 64.2% |
| 2017 | 68.1% | 65.8% |
| 2018 | 65.1% | 65.2% |
| 2019 | 63.7% | 64.4% |
| 2020 | 65.1% | 64.5% |
| 2021 | 64.3% | 63.8% |
| 2022 | 68.3% | 65.8% |
| 2023 | 70.4% | 65.7% |
| 2024 | 70.1% | 66.9% |
| 2025 | 68.4% | 67.9% |
Red corner favourites hold up, blue corner favourites cost money
The corner split is the most striking table in the study. Red corner favourites won 69.5% from 4,240 fights against 67.3% priced, a gap of +2.2 points. Blue corner favourites won 61.7% from 2,533 against 63.7% priced, a gap of โ2.0 points.
At flat stakes that shows up in the returns: red corner favourites returned โ0.6% while blue corner favourites returned โ6.6%. The red corner usually goes to the higher-billed fighter, so a blue corner favourite is often the newer or less established name the market has backed anyway.
| Favourite | Fights | Priced | Won | Gap (pts) | Flat-stake return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red corner favourite | 4,240 | 67.3% | 69.5% | +2.2 | โ0.6% |
| Blue corner favourite | 2,533 | 63.7% | 61.7% | โ2.0 | โ6.6% |
When the betting favours the fighter the promotion has not billed higher, I ask why. Sometimes that is sharp money spotting a bad matchup for the red corner. Sometimes it is hype, and this table suggests hype has been expensive.
What I take from this
- The market is efficient. Favourites won 66.6% against 66.0% priced, and backing all of them returned โ2.9% at flat stakes. The moneyline alone is not where the value lives.
- Extremes deserve attention. Favourites of -400 or shorter beat their price by +4.2 points, while -174 to -150 favourites fell โ2.9 points short. Those are leans to weigh, not rules.
- Question blue corner chalk. Blue corner favourites returned โ6.6% against โ0.6% for red. I want a clear stylistic reason before I side with one.
Questions from readers
How often do UFC favourites win?
Across 6,773 UFC fights with closing odds from 2010 to 2026, the moneyline favourite won 66.6%. The margin-removed odds priced them at 66.0%, so the market was very close.
Is it profitable to bet every UFC favourite?
No. Backing every favourite at the closing moneyline returned โ2.9% at flat stakes, largely because the average two-way margin in the sample was 3.5%.
How often do big UFC favourites lose?
Favourites of -400 or shorter won 86.0% of 1,008 fights, against 81.8% implied by their odds. Even at those prices, upsets happen often enough to matter for parlays.
I'm Somchai Prasert, based in Bangkok, and I write the UFC staff picks at htftpredictions.com โ reading style matchups and fight IQ over hype and records.
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