NHL Puck Line: How Often Do Favourites Win by 2+ Goals?
Picking the winner and covering the puck line are two very different jobs. I mapped how often NHL favourites win by two or more, band by band and season by season.
Every hockey bettor eventually stares at a short-priced favourite and wonders whether the −1.5 puck line is the smarter way in. It is the question I get most often from readers of my NHL betting tips page, so I went to the public records to answer it properly.
Across 23,990 regular-season games, the Elo favourite won 57.9% of the time but won by two or more goals only 33.9% of the time. The underdog +1.5 therefore held up in 66.1% of games. Strength helps, but even favourites rated 70%+ covered only 47.6%. The one-goal game is the structure of this sport, not an accident of it.
Win rate versus two-goal margin across every probability band
This chart sets each band's win rate beside its cover rate. In the 50-55% band, favourites won 51.2% but covered −1.5 in just 27.9% of 7,531 games. At 60-65% the figures rise to 59.9% and 36.0%. At 70%+ they reach 72.9% and 47.6% across 1,425 games, with a range of ±2.6.
The gap between the two dots barely narrows as the favourite gets stronger. A better team wins more often, but it does not convert those wins into two-goal margins at a much faster rate. That matters when the puck line is priced as though dominance and margin travel together.
Elo probability is a public Elo rating model's pre-game win probability, not bookmaker odds.
View the data: winning is not covering
| Won the game | Won by 2+ goals | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% (7,531 games) | 51.2% | 27.9% | ±1 |
| 55-60% (6,994 games) | 57.1% | 33.3% | ±1.1 |
| 60-65% (5,172 games) | 59.9% | 36.0% | ±1.3 |
| 65-70% (2,868 games) | 66.0% | 40.4% | ±1.8 |
| 70%+ (1,425 games) | 72.9% | 47.6% | ±2.6 |
My reading: below the top band, the −1.5 is a long-odds proposition on a team that loses outright plenty of the time. I want strong evidence of a real mismatch, such as goaltending, special teams or a tired opponent, before I consider it.
Where the one-goal game swallows the puck line
Here every game is split into four outcomes from the favourite's side. Across the whole sample, 24.0% of games ended with the favourite winning by exactly one goal, and 41.5% of favourite wins came by a single goal. Shootout wins are counted as one goal, which is how bets settle, so that middle slice stays large.
Look at the strongest band. Even at 70%+, the favourite lost by exactly one goal 13.9% of the time and by two or more 13.2%. A heavy favourite still walks off beaten in a meaningful share of games, which is why I never treat a big Elo edge as protection.
View the data: final margin from the favourite's side
| Fav by 2+ | Fav by 1 | Dog by 1 | Dog by 2+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 27.9% | 23.4% | 22.5% | 26.3% |
| 55-60% | 33.3% | 23.8% | 20.4% | 22.4% |
| 60-65% | 36.0% | 23.9% | 20.2% | 19.9% |
| 65-70% | 40.4% | 25.6% | 17.5% | 16.5% |
| 70%+ | 47.6% | 25.3% | 13.9% | 13.2% |
The one-goal favourite win is the outcome that hurts −1.5 backers and rewards +1.5 backers. It is a steady share in every band, and it is the main reason the underdog side covers as often as it does.
Empty-net goals have pushed two-goal wins higher in recent seasons
The season line shows the cover rate is not fixed. Favourites won by 2+ goals in 32.0% of games from 2005-06 to 2014-15 and 35.7% from 2015-16 to 2024-25. Since 2020-21 the rate is 38.0%. The worst season was 2011-12 at 30.2%. The best was 2021-22 at 39.9%.
The likely driver is coaching behaviour. Teams pull the goalie earlier and more aggressively now, so a one-goal lead late in the third becomes a two-goal win more often than it used to.
More pulled-goalie empty-net goals in recent seasons turn one-goal leads into two-goal wins.
View the data: favourites winning by 2+ goals, by season
| Favourite won | Favourite won by 2+ | |
|---|---|---|
| 2005-06 | 61.9% | 33.8% |
| 2006-07 | 60.0% | 34.1% |
| 2007-08 | 54.4% | 32.0% |
| 2008-09 | 57.6% | 32.6% |
| 2009-10 | 55.3% | 30.6% |
| 2010-11 | 54.5% | 31.1% |
| 2011-12 | 56.3% | 30.2% |
| 2012-13 | 57.5% | 32.6% |
| 2013-14 | 57.0% | 32.0% |
| 2014-15 | 56.9% | 31.3% |
| 2015-16 | 55.6% | 31.1% |
| 2016-17 | 57.6% | 32.5% |
| 2017-18 | 57.9% | 33.2% |
| 2018-19 | 58.4% | 36.1% |
| 2019-20 | 54.8% | 33.6% |
| 2020-21 | 60.3% | 34.9% |
| 2021-22 | 62.3% | 39.9% |
| 2022-23 | 60.5% | 38.3% |
| 2023-24 | 59.8% | 38.3% |
| 2024-25 | 58.6% | 37.4% |
For that reason I weight the recent seasons well above the full average. The long-run 33.9% understates what the modern game produces, and anyone pricing the puck line on old numbers is working from an outdated picture.
Home and road favourites cover at almost the same rate
I expected venue to matter more than it does. Home favourites won 57.9% and covered −1.5 in 34.0% of 18,801 games, which works out to a fair price of +194. Road favourites won 57.6% and covered 33.3% of 5,139 games, a fair price of +201.
Road favourites covered −0.8 points relative to home favourites, a small difference. Last change and home ice shape the matchup, but they do not change how often a game finishes inside one goal.
| Favourite | Games | Won | Won by 2+ | Fair odds −1.5 | Dog +1.5 covers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favourite | 18,801 | 57.9% | 34.0% | +194 | 66.0% |
| Road favourite | 5,139 | 57.6% | 33.3% | +201 | 66.7% |
One caveat runs through all of this. Elo is a public rating model, not a bookmaker's price, and I had no real puck-line odds, so these are reference rates and fair prices, not a test of profit. Use them as a benchmark against the market rather than as a system.
What I take from this
- Winning differs from covering. Favourites won 57.9% but covered −1.5 only 33.9%. Treat the puck line as its own market with its own question.
- Respect the one-goal finish. 41.5% of favourite wins came by a single goal. That slice is why +1.5 covered 66.1% overall.
- Weight the modern era. Since 2020-21 favourites have covered 38.0%, helped by empty-net goals. I lean on recent seasons when judging a −1.5 price.
Questions from readers
How often does the NHL favourite cover the −1.5 puck line?
Across 23,990 regular-season games from 2005-06 to 2024-25, the Elo favourite won by two or more goals 33.9% of the time. Since 2020-21 that figure has risen to 38.0%.
Do heavy NHL favourites usually cover the puck line?
Not usually. Favourites rated 70%+ by Elo won 72.9% of games but covered −1.5 in 47.6%, so they failed to cover slightly more often than they succeeded.
How often does the +1.5 puck line underdog cover in the NHL?
The underdog +1.5 covered 66.1% of the time across all games. Against home favourites it covered 66.0%, and against road favourites 66.7%.
I'm Henrik Solberg, based in Oslo, and I cover the best NHL bet of the day at htftpredictions.com — focused on goaltending, special teams and shot quality.
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