How Often Do NHL Games Go to Overtime? 23,990 Games Checked

Hockey is the one major North American sport where a tie after regulation is routine, and that matters to anyone pricing three-way markets, totals or shootout props. I checked 23,990 NHL regular-season games from 2005-06 to 2024-25, plus 1,701 playoff games, to pin down how often 60 minutes is not enough. These base rates sit underneath every price I assess on my NHL bet of the day page.

The headline answer is that 22.9% of regular-season games were tied after 60 minutes, a figure that has stayed close to that level season after season. What has changed is how those games finish. Since 3-on-3 overtime arrived, only 33.3% of extra-time games have reached a shootout, and the shootout now settles just 7.4% of all games.

Twenty seasons of overtime rates holding remarkably steady

The upper line is the share of games that went past regulation each season, and it barely moves. The high point was 25.0% in 2013-14 and the low was 20.7% in 2023-24, a narrow band for a sport this prone to bounces.

The lower line tells a different story. The shootout share sits in double figures through the 4-on-4 years, then falls away sharply from 2015-16, when 3-on-3 overtime replaced 4-on-4, and keeps edging down from there.

Most recently, 2024-25 saw 20.7% of games go past regulation and 5.9% end in a shootout. One honest warning: rule changes such as 3-on-3 overtime and the loser point shift team incentives, so I treat the older seasons as a rough guide rather than a template for today.

3-on-3 overtime shifted decisions away from the shootout

Split by era, the total share of games going past regulation dipped only slightly, from 23.7% in the 4-on-4 era to 22.2% in the 3-on-3 era. The real change is inside extra time. The shootout fell from 13.4% of all games to 7.4%, while overtime goals now settle far more of those tied games.

Put another way, 56.8% of extra-time games ended in a shootout before 3-on-3 overtime, and 33.3% after it. Open ice at 3-on-3 creates odd-man rushes and high-quality chances, so goaltenders rarely survive five minutes untouched.

The playoff row has no shootout at all. Playoff games went to overtime 22.9% of the time, and 4.6% needed two or more overtime periods, which is worth remembering for any bet that runs to the final result.

Evenly matched games reach overtime only slightly more often

Here I grouped games by the pre-game win probability a public Elo rating model gave the favourite. When the favourite was rated 50-55%, 23.6% of games went to overtime or a shootout across 7,531 games. When the favourite was rated 70%+, the rate dropped to 20.0% across 1,425 games.

The middle bands do not fall in a neat line; they bounce around within a point or so of each other. Closeness matters, but less than intuition suggests.

Even in a heavy mismatch, about one game in five was still level after 60 minutes. That is why I never dismiss the regulation draw price simply because one side looks far stronger, and why I remember this is a rating model, not bookmaker odds.

Home advantage fades as games drift toward the shootout

Home teams won 55.7% of games decided in regulation, across 18,454 games with a tight ±0.7 range. In overtime the edge shrinks to 52.4% (±1.8), and in shootouts it disappears entirely at 49.4% (±2.0), which is effectively a coin toss.

For a bettor, the lesson is that home advantage lives mostly in regulation. Once a game is tied, much of what you paid for on the home moneyline is gone, and in a shootout you are backing a skills contest with no meaningful home bias.

About the authorHenrik Solberg

I'm Henrik Solberg, based in Oslo, and I cover the best NHL bet of the day at htftpredictions.com — focused on goaltending, special teams and shot quality.

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