How Often Do Favourites Win in Australian Racing? 128,873 Races
The favourite wins about as often as its exchange price says it should. That holds across price bands, years and states, which tells you where an edge isn't.
My grandfather used to ask me, pencil in hand, how often I thought the favourite actually won. I never had a proper answer. Now I do. Across 128,873 Australian and New Zealand races with a clear exchange SP favourite, the favourite won 34.6%, against 34.5% implied by its price.
That gap is tiny, and it is the real headline: the market prices favourites very honestly. Backing every one at exchange SP returned +0.5% gross and โ2.8% after 5% commission. Below I break that down by price, year, state and distance. If you want to see how I use this race by race, it all feeds into my best racing tips today page.
Favourites win almost exactly as often as their price says
Each row compares what the exchange SP implied with what favourites actually delivered in that price band. The short ones under 1.50 won 73.8% of 2,343 races against 73.1% implied. Favourites at 2.00-2.49 won 44.3% of 19,431 races against 44.5% implied. Out at 5.00+, they won 18.1% of 8,908 races against 17.9% implied.
The two dots sit nearly on top of each other in every band. There is no price range where favourites are routinely overbet or routinely ignored.
View the data: priced vs delivered
| Implied by exchange SP | Actually won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.50 (2,343 races) | 73.1% | 73.8% | ยฑ1.8 |
| 1.50-1.99 (12,692 races) | 56.5% | 56.3% | ยฑ0.9 |
| 2.00-2.49 (19,431 races) | 44.5% | 44.3% | ยฑ0.7 |
| 2.50-2.99 (24,126 races) | 36.5% | 36.2% | ยฑ0.6 |
| 3.00-3.49 (22,186 races) | 31.0% | 31.1% | ยฑ0.6 |
| 3.50-3.99 (18,343 races) | 26.9% | 27.1% | ยฑ0.6 |
| 4.00-4.99 (20,844 races) | 22.8% | 23.5% | ยฑ0.6 |
| 5.00+ (8,908 races) | 17.9% | 18.1% | ยฑ0.8 |
My takeaway is that no price band is a shortcut. The median favourite went off at 3.12, and the market has that kind of runner sized up well. Any mispricing I find has to come from the race itself: the going, the pace map, the draw. A rule about price won't find it.
Favourite strike rate barely shifts from one season to the next
The strike rate ran from 33.9% in 2020 to 35.1% in January-August 2026, and the implied line follows it closely the whole way. Bear in mind that 2026 is a part-season, so I wouldn't read much into it finishing slightly higher.
What strikes me is the stability. Favourites haven't suddenly become more or less reliable. The market adjusts as conditions change, so a hot or cold run for favourites tends to be noise rather than a trend worth chasing.
*2026 = January to August.
View the data: favourite strike rate by year
| Won | Implied by exchange SP | |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 33.9% | 34.1% |
| 2021 | 34.4% | 34.5% |
| 2022 | 34.6% | 34.1% |
| 2023 | 34.5% | 34.8% |
| 2024 | 34.8% | 34.4% |
| 2025 | 34.9% | 35.0% |
| 2026* | 35.1% | 34.7% |
Queensland favourites win most often and New Zealand favourites least
Queensland had the highest favourite strike rate at 36.4% across 23,622 races. New Zealand had the lowest at 30.2% across 15,496 races. New South Wales favourites won 35.9% and Victorian favourites 34.4%.
Look at the implied column before getting excited, though. Queensland's favourites were priced at 36.5% and returned โ3.8% after commission. A high strike rate is not the same as value. New South Wales came out best for favourite backers at โ0.2%, and the Australian Capital Territory looks poor, but that comes from only 1,191 races.
| State | Races | Implied | Won | Gap (pts) | Return after comm. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QLD | 23,622 | 36.5% | 36.4% | โ0.1 | โ3.8% |
| NSW | 32,436 | 35.0% | 35.9% | +0.9 | โ0.2% |
| NT | 2,807 | 36.0% | 35.9% | โ0.1 | โ3.4% |
| TAS | 3,433 | 35.8% | 35.5% | โ0.3 | โ5.1% |
| WA | 13,933 | 35.4% | 35.1% | โ0.3 | โ3.9% |
| VIC | 27,007 | 34.3% | 34.4% | +0.1 | โ2.5% |
| ACT | 1,191 | 36.0% | 32.9% | โ3.1 | โ11.4% |
| SA | 8,948 | 32.7% | 32.1% | โ0.6 | โ4.5% |
| NZ | 15,496 | 30.4% | 30.2% | โ0.3 | โ3.8% |
This is my main caveat. Exchange SP is only known after the off, so these returns describe what an exchange SP backer received, not a price you could have taken beforehand. Returns within a few points of zero can also come about by pure chance.
Sprint favourites strike noticeably more often than staying favourites
Favourites won 37.4% of races up to 1,099m and 33.2% of races of 2,200m or more. The fall comes mostly through the middle distances and then levels off.
That fits what I see on the track. Short races leave less room for a trip to go wrong. Early speed and a good barrier count for more, and they are easier to read. Over a staying trip, pace, tactics and stamina add uncertainty that the favourite can't fully control.
View the data: favourites by race distance
| Favourite win rate, Australia & NZ | |
|---|---|
| Up to 1,099m | 37.4% |
| 1,100-1,299m | 35.8% |
| 1,300-1,499m | 33.6% |
| 1,500-1,799m | 32.9% |
| 1,800-2,199m | 32.9% |
| 2,200m+ | 33.2% |
I don't have implied prices by distance here, so I won't claim sprint favourites are underpriced. What it does tell me is where favourites are more vulnerable. Longer races are where I spend more time looking for each-way and place value behind the market leader.
What I take from this
- The market prices favourites fairly. Favourites won 34.6% against 34.5% implied, so blindly backing them simply pays the commission. You need a reason specific to the race.
- Strike rate isn't value. Queensland favourites won the most at 36.4%, yet still returned โ3.8% after commission. Always check the win rate against the price.
- Look harder over a trip. Favourites drop from 37.4% in sprints to 33.2% at 2,200m or more. That makes staying races my first stop for each-way alternatives.
Questions from readers
How often does the favourite win in Australian horse racing?
Across 128,873 Australian and New Zealand races, the exchange SP favourite won 34.6%. Its price implied 34.5%, so favourites win almost exactly as often as the market expects.
Is backing every favourite profitable?
Not in this study. Backing every favourite at exchange SP returned +0.5% gross but โ2.8% after 5% commission, and the best state, New South Wales, still showed โ0.2%.
Do favourites win more often in sprints or staying races?
Sprints. Favourites won 37.4% of races up to 1,099m compared with 33.2% of races of 2,200m or more.
I'm Indira Rao, based in Brisbane, and I write the horse racing tips at htftpredictions.com โ reading form, going and pace rather than chasing the favourite.
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