Bat First or Chase in T20? Win Rates by League and Season
Chasing holds a small edge in most T20 leagues and ODIs. The size of that edge depends heavily on the competition, and Tests run the other way.
Every bettor eventually asks the same question at the toss: does the side batting second actually win more often? I hear it constantly from readers of my cricket match predictions page. So I went through public records for men's T20 leagues, T20Is, ODIs and Tests to see what the results say, as opposed to what commentators assume.
The headline answer is yes, but only just. Across 6,096 full-length decided T20s, the chasing side won 51.8%. That is a lean, not a law. It also varies a lot between leagues, swings wildly from season to season, and reverses completely in Test cricket, where the side batting first comes out ahead.
Chasing win rates across thirteen competitions compared side by side
The table sorts every competition by how often the chasing side won. Nine of the 13 competitions sit above 50%, which explains the overall lean. The spread is wide, though. ILT20 tops the list at 61.1% from 131 matches, while SA20 sits at the bottom on 46.2% from 117 matches.
The matches column matters as much as the percentage. Those two extremes come from small samples, with 95% ranges of ยฑ8.3 and ยฑ9.0, so I would not build a model on either yet. The IPL at 54.5% over 1,185 matches and the T20 Blast at 48.3% over 1,394 are far more reliable, and they point in opposite directions.
| Competition | Matches | Chasing side won | 95% range | Chase edge (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILT20 | 131 | 61.1% | ยฑ8.3 | +11.1 |
| PSL | 339 | 56.3% | ยฑ5.3 | +6.3 |
| CPL | 398 | 55.3% | ยฑ4.9 | +5.3 |
| IPL | 1,185 | 54.5% | ยฑ2.8 | +4.5 |
| MLC | 102 | 53.9% | ยฑ9.7 | +3.9 |
| BBL | 607 | 53.0% | ยฑ4.0 | +3.0 |
| BPL | 463 | 52.9% | ยฑ4.5 | +2.9 |
| ODI | 1,709 | 52.4% | ยฑ2.4 | +2.4 |
| Super Smash | 233 | 51.5% | ยฑ6.4 | +1.5 |
| LPL | 127 | 48.8% | ยฑ8.7 | โ1.2 |
| T20I | 1,000 | 48.8% | ยฑ3.1 | โ1.2 |
| T20 Blast | 1,394 | 48.3% | ยฑ2.6 | โ1.7 |
| SA20 | 117 | 46.2% | ยฑ9.0 | โ3.8 |
T20Is between Full Members, at 48.8% over 1,000 matches, sit on the batting-first side of the line. That reminds me that international pressure and stronger bowling attacks can change the dynamic league cricket shows. I read each competition on its own terms.
How the chasing edge has shifted since 2020
This dumbbell splits each competition into results up to 2019 and from 2020 onward. With modern scoring rates, you might expect chasing to have become easier everywhere. It hasn't. The IPL drifted slightly from 55.1% to 53.6%, and the BBL fell from 54.9% to 51.5%. The PSL fell sharply from 64.5% in its earlier seasons.
Other competitions moved the other way. ODI chasers improved from 51.8% to 55.0%, and the BPL rose from 49.3% to 56.1%. The T20 Blast hardly moved at all, going from 47.9% to 48.6%, which suggests English conditions produce a stable, slightly batting-first pattern.
Range bars show the 95% range for 2020 onward. Season year used for BBL and Super Smash.
View the data: chasing win rate, then and now
| Up to 2019 | 2020 onward | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IPL (717 / 468 matches) | 55.1% | 53.6% | ยฑ4.5 |
| BBL (273 / 334 matches) | 54.9% | 51.5% | ยฑ5.4 |
| T20 Blast (630 / 764 matches) | 47.9% | 48.6% | ยฑ3.5 |
| PSL (107 / 232 matches) | 64.5% | 52.6% | ยฑ6.4 |
| CPL (191 / 207 matches) | 54.5% | 56.0% | ยฑ6.8 |
| BPL (217 / 246 matches) | 49.3% | 56.1% | ยฑ6.2 |
| T20I (465 / 535 matches) | 47.3% | 50.1% | ยฑ4.2 |
| ODI (1,376 / 333 matches) | 51.8% | 55.0% | ยฑ5.3 |
The range bars are the important detail here. Most of these shifts fall within the 95% range, so I treat them as drift to watch, not a structural break to bet on.
Single seasons swing far more than the averages suggest
This is the chart I would show anyone who backs the chasing side by habit. IPL seasons have run from a 42.3% chasing win rate in 2015 to 67.9% the very next year. The BBL has been even more volatile, dropping as low as 34.6% and peaking at 68.
The note under the chart is the key point: single seasons swing by ยฑ10 points by chance alone. In the IPL, chasers won 53.0% of 279 matches from 2023 onward, the period of the Impact Player rule. That is close to the long-run figure. Rule changes and scoring inflation do move the balance, but one season's run is mostly noise.
Seasons with fewer than 25 full-length decided matches are blank. Single seasons swing by ยฑ10 points by chance.
View the data: season by season: how often chasers win
| IPL | T20 Blast | BBL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 61.1% | โ | โ |
| 2009 | 52.8% | โ | โ |
| 2010 | 47.5% | โ | โ |
| 2011 | 53.6% | โ | โ |
| 2012 | 53.4% | โ | 34.6% |
| 2013 | 50.7% | โ | 68.0% |
| 2014 | 63.2% | 42.2% | 41.9% |
| 2015 | 42.3% | 48.2% | 48.4% |
| 2016 | 67.9% | 53.3% | 62.5% |
| 2017 | 54.4% | 44.7% | 66.7% |
| 2018 | 54.4% | 50.9% | 50.0% |
| 2019 | 61.4% | 48.4% | 62.3% |
| 2020 | 51.8% | 47.4% | 40.0% |
| 2021 | 62.7% | 43.9% | 47.3% |
| 2022 | 50.0% | 45.7% | 36.8% |
| 2023 | 45.1% | 53.3% | 56.1% |
| 2024 | 51.4% | 53.6% | 57.1% |
| 2025 | 51.5% | 46.3% | 67.5% |
| 2026 | 64.3% | 49.1% | 65.0% |
The T20 Blast line stays much flatter, hovering around the middle of the chart. To me that consistency is more useful than any single eye-catching season elsewhere.
Why Tests reward the side that bats first
Limited-overs cricket gives a two-way split, with T20 leagues and ODIs both at 52.4% for the chasing side. Tests are a different discipline. Across 894 Tests, the side batting first won 44.7%, 18.9% were drawn, and the side batting second won only 36.4%.
That gap fits what I see on the ground. Pitches wear, spinners come into play, and the team batting last often faces the worst of the surface. In white-ball cricket the chaser has the advantage of knowing the target. In a Test, batting last on a crumbling fourth-day pitch usually outweighs that.
View the data: result for the side batting first
| Batting first won | Draw | Chasing side won | |
|---|---|---|---|
| T20 leagues | 47.6% | 0.0% | 52.4% |
| T20I | 51.2% | 0.0% | 48.8% |
| ODI | 47.6% | 0.0% | 52.4% |
| Test | 44.7% | 18.9% | 36.4% |
What I take from this
- Small edge, not system. The chasing side won 51.8% of full-length T20s overall. That is useful context, but it is far too thin to back blindly.
- League beats format. The IPL at 54.5% and the T20 Blast at 48.3% lean in opposite directions, so I always start from the specific competition. The overall T20 figure hides those differences.
- Conditions drive the toss. These rates blend pitch and weather with the captain's choice at the toss. I read dew, surface and venue first and treat the historical rate as a tiebreaker. Past results never guarantee what happens next.
Questions from readers
Is it better to bat first or chase in T20 cricket?
Across 6,096 full-length decided men's T20s, the chasing side won 51.8%. The edge is small and varies by league, from 61.1% in ILT20 to 46.2% in SA20.
How often does the chasing team win in the IPL?
Chasers won 54.5% of 1,185 full-length decided IPL matches, and 53.0% of 279 from 2023 onward. Single seasons have ranged from 42.3% to 67.9%.
Does batting first help in Test matches?
Yes. Across 894 Tests, the side batting first won 44.7% and the side batting second won 36.4%, with 18.9% drawn.
I'm Zayd Hashmi, based in Abu Dhabi, and I write all the cricket betting tips at htftpredictions.com โ reading the pitch as closely as the form.
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