How Often Do Football Favourites Really Win? 17,850 Matches Tested
Ten seasons of Europe’s top five leagues, compared price by price with what actually happened. The favourite is a better bet than its reputation, but only at certain prices, and only at the right price.
Every weekend I hear two opposite beliefs about favourites. One camp says they only lose to bad luck. The other says backing them is a slow way to lose money. I wanted to stop arguing from memory, so I went through ten full seasons of Europe’s top five leagues, 17,850 matches in total, and compared what the bookmaker priced with what actually happened on the pitch.
The short answer: favourites won 54.2% of those matches, while their odds, once the bookmaker’s margin is stripped out, implied 52.9%. That is a small edge in the favourite’s direction, and it is the backdrop to how I build our soccer predictions for today. The more useful answers sit underneath that headline, in three places: the odds band, the way favourites fail, and the price you actually take.
Priced vs delivered: where the market is right, and where it is not
Split by price, the market is remarkably accurate in most bands. Between 1.50 and 1.69, favourites were priced to win 60.0% of the time and won 60.3%. For all the talk of bookmakers getting it wrong, over thousands of matches they mostly do not.
Major-bookmaker pre-match 1X2 odds, margin removed proportionally.
View the data: priced vs delivered
| Priced (margin removed) | Actually won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| <1.30 (1,494 matches) | 79.8% | 81.3% | ±2 |
| 1.30–1.49 (2,211 matches) | 68.7% | 72.5% | ±1.9 |
| 1.50–1.69 (2,555 matches) | 60.0% | 60.3% | ±1.9 |
| 1.70–1.89 (2,523 matches) | 53.5% | 55.9% | ±1.9 |
| 1.90–2.09 (2,408 matches) | 48.0% | 47.8% | ±2 |
| 2.10–2.49 (4,683 matches) | 42.0% | 43.1% | ±1.4 |
| 2.50+ (1,976 matches) | 37.0% | 37.1% | ±2.1 |
The exception is the 1.30–1.49 band. Across 2,211 matches these sides were priced at 68.7% and won 72.5%, a gap larger than the ±1.9-point range we would expect from chance alone, and the clearest signal in the dataset. The 1.70–1.89 band shows a smaller gap in the same direction, 55.9% won against 53.5% priced, close to the edge of what noise could produce.
The draw, not the defeat, is what beats favourites
When a favourite does not win, the cause is more often a draw than a loss: 24.9% of all these matches were drawn, against 20.9% where the favourite lost outright. At short prices the gap is wide. Favourites under 1.30 drew 12.7% of the time and lost only 6.1%.
View the data: how favourites fail
| Favourite won | Draw | Favourite lost | |
|---|---|---|---|
| <1.30 | 81.3% | 12.7% | 6.1% |
| 1.30–1.49 | 72.5% | 17.7% | 9.8% |
| 1.50–1.69 | 60.3% | 23.4% | 16.3% |
| 1.70–1.89 | 55.9% | 25.2% | 18.9% |
| 1.90–2.09 | 47.8% | 27.4% | 24.9% |
| 2.10–2.49 | 43.1% | 28.8% | 28.1% |
| 2.50+ | 37.1% | 32.1% | 30.8% |
Tactically this makes sense to me. A clear favourite that fails to score early usually meets a compact block that is happy with a point, and the match drifts toward the draw rather than toward an upset. Only at 2.50 or longer do draws (32.1%) and defeats (30.8%) become almost equally likely.
The price you take matters more than the pick
This is the chart I would put in front of anyone who bets on favourites. Staking the same amount on every favourite at a major bookmaker’s odds returned −2.4% over ten seasons. The same picks at the best odds available across roughly seventeen bookmakers returned +1.1%. Nothing changed except the price, and that alone moved the result by 3.5 points.
Historical flat-stake return, not a forecast. Best available odds were not always obtainable.
View the data: same pick, different price
| At major-bookmaker odds | At best available odds | |
|---|---|---|
| <1.30 | −2.7% | +0.2% |
| 1.30–1.49 | +0.9% | +4.2% |
| 1.50–1.69 | −4.0% | −0.6% |
| 1.70–1.89 | −0.2% | +3.3% |
| 1.90–2.09 | −5.1% | −1.5% |
| 2.10–2.49 | −2.1% | +1.8% |
| 2.50+ | −4.0% | −0.2% |
| All favourites | −2.4% | +1.1% |
Two cautions. The best-odds column is a ceiling: those prices existed when the data was collected, but not every account can get them or get full stakes on them. And returns are noisy; a few percent either way is within the range chance can produce. I read this chart as a lesson about price discipline, not as a ready-made system.
Not every league treats its favourites the same way
The favourite edge is not uniform. In Serie A favourites beat their price by +2.2 points and in La Liga by +2.1 points. The Bundesliga is the only one of the five where they fell short, winning 52.6% against a priced 53.2%, and backing them at a major bookmaker returned −6.0%.
| League | Matches | Priced | Won | Gap (pts) | Return at a major bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 3,786 | 53.4% | 55.6% | +2.2 | −1.2% |
| La Liga | 3,784 | 51.9% | 54.0% | +2.1 | −0.9% |
| Ligue 1 | 3,456 | 51.4% | 52.6% | +1.2 | −2.8% |
| Premier League | 3,783 | 54.6% | 55.6% | +1.1 | −1.9% |
| Bundesliga | 3,041 | 53.2% | 52.6% | −0.6 | −6.0% |
One more pattern surprised me: at the same odds, away favourites won slightly more often than home favourites in 7 of the 7 price bands, for example 39.2% against 35.3% at 2.50 or longer. It suggests the market may give a little too much credit to home advantage when the away side is the stronger team.
The bookmaker’s cut, season by season
Everything above is measured after removing the margin, but you pay that margin on every bet. On these odds it ranged from 4.4% to 5.6% per match, and 2025/26 was the most expensive season in the sample. A bigger margin eats directly into any edge in the charts above, which is one more reason to compare prices before placing anything.
View the data: the bookmaker's cut, season by season
| Average major-bookmaker 1X2 margin | |
|---|---|
| 2016/17 | 4.6% |
| 2017/18 | 4.8% |
| 2018/19 | 4.7% |
| 2019/20 | 4.8% |
| 2020/21 | 4.8% |
| 2021/22 | 4.4% |
| 2022/23 | 4.4% |
| 2023/24 | 4.4% |
| 2024/25 | 4.8% |
| 2025/26 | 5.6% |
What I take from this
- Respect the market. In most price bands the odds were an accurate guide over thousands of matches. Beating them needs a specific reason, not a feeling.
- Short favourites fail by drawing. Before backing one, ask how it scores against a deep block. That question matters more than its league position.
- Price is the edge you control. The same picks swung from a loss to a profit on price alone. Shopping for the best number is the most reliable improvement available to any bettor.
Questions from readers
How often does the favourite win in football?
Across 17,850 matches in Europe’s top five leagues from 2016/17 to 2025/26, the pre-match favourite won 54.2% of the time, drew 24.9% and lost 20.9%.
Is it profitable to always back the favourite?
Not at a single bookmaker. Backing every favourite at a major bookmaker’s odds returned −2.4% over ten seasons; at the best available odds it returned +1.1%, but best odds are not always obtainable and past returns do not predict future ones.
Which odds range gives favourites the biggest edge?
In this dataset, favourites priced between 1.30 and 1.49 won 72.5% of the time against 68.7% priced, the largest gap and the only one clearly outside the range expected from chance.
I'm Felix Steiner, based in Vienna, and I cover the soccer predictions at htftpredictions.com — built on tactics and structure rather than hype.
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